Estimating the End of Global Petroleum Exports Part 3 Regional production, consumption and export trends for EU, FS, SA and NA

Here, in part three, I will finish my summary of analyzing the production, consumption and export trends for the remaining four regions in this study: Europe (EU), Former Soviet Union (FS), South America (SA) and North America (NA).

Europe

Figure 4 presents the reported production, consumption and net exports rates and the corresponding NLLS best curves for EU. 

Major producers in 2009 were Norway (52%) UK (32%) and Denmark (6%)—all of these being North Sea petroleum producers.  The top regional consumers were Germany (16%) followed by France, UK, Spain, and Italy, each of these responsible for about 10-12% of total consumption. 

 The reported production rates and consumption rates both have two distinct stages.  To model this, I divided the production rates into two stages corresponding to 1965-1989 and 1990-2009, and, I divided consumption rates into two stages corresponding to 1965-1982 and 1983-2009.  The best fit parameters of Qo, Q∞ and the rate constant "a," obtained from fits to these time ranges, are summarized in Table 4 below:

Table 4 summary of best fit parameter for production and consumption for EU
	Qo (bbs)	Q∞ (bbs)	a (yr-1)
Production 1965-89	0.54	37	0.18
Production 1990-2009	13	68	0.15
Consumption 1965-1982	24	166	0.15
Consumption 1983-2009	199	662	0.036

For production, the best fit parameters for the 1965-89 and 1990-2009 time ranges are consistent with 18 and 15 percent per year increases, respectively,  until the peak production at 2.5 bbs/yr in 1999 when production peaked.   Consequently, from 2000 onwards, the production rate has been declining at about this same rate of 15 percent per year.

For consumption, the best fit parameters are consistent with a high rate of increasing consumption from 1965-89 at 15 percent per year, followed by a much slower rate of yearly increase of 3.6 percent per year.  The all-time peak reported consumption rate was way back in 1979 at 6.2 bbs/yr, but by 2006, consumption was almost back to this level at 6 bbs/yr.  The the Hubbert equation best fit to the 1983-2009 time range suggests that consumption peaked in 2006 and now is slowly declining at 3.6 percent per year. 

Like AP, EU has not been a regional net exporter since 1965 and probably longer (if ever).  The reported net import rate follows a complex time course, as the multiple production and consumption rates peaked at different times.  Despite the recent trend for declining consumption, the need for imports is predicted to increase because production is declining (i.e., -15%/yr) at a much faster rate than the declining rate of consumption (i.e., -3.5 %/yr).   The bet fit export trend predicts peak net imports occurring in 2021 at -5.1 bbs/yr. 

Former Soviet Union

Figure 5 presents the reported production, consumption and net exports rates and the corresponding NLLS best curves for FS. 

Regional production in 2009 is dominated by Russia (76%) with Kazakhstan a distant second (13%).  Likewise, consumption is predominantly from Russia (68%), distantly followed by Ukraine (8%) as the second highest petroleum consumer. 

Once again, we see that both the reported production rates and consumption rates have two stages. To model this, both the production rates and consumption rates were analyzed as two separate stages corresponding to 1965-1996 and 1997-2009. The best fit parameters of Qo, Q∞ and the rate constant "a," obtained from fits to these time ranges, are summarized in Table 5 below:

Table 5 summary of best fit parameter for production and consumption for FS
	Qo (bbs)	Q∞ (bbs)	a (yr-1)
Production 1965-1996	14	151	0.12
Production 1997-2009	22	167	0.12
Consumption 1965-1996	9.4	104	0.12
Consumption 1997-2009	58	165	0.035

For production, the best fit parameters for the two time ranges are consistent with the about same increasing rate of production, 12 percent per year, and, about the same peak production rates of 4.6 and 5.0 bbs/yr, respectively, for the 1965-1996 and 1997-2009 time ranges.  Production in the latter time range is predicted to peak in 2012 at about 5 bbs/yr. 

For consumption, in the 1965-1996 time range, the consumption rate also increased at about 12 percent per year, peaking at 3.2 bbs/yr in 1984, which is the same year as the first production peak.  However, after declining by about 60% from the peak in the mid 80s, throughout the second time range, 1997-2009, consumption rates increased much more slowly at 3.5% per year, looks pretty flat in a range of 1.4-1.5 bbs/yr over this time span, with a slight peak predicted to occur in 2014.

Mostly because of its continued trend for flat consumption, FS has increased as a net exporter in the last decade (i.e., from 1997-2009, compared to 1965-1996).  The best fit export trend predicts peak net exports occurring in 2012 at 3.6 bbs/yr and zero net exports by 2033. 

South America

Figure 6 presents the reported production, consumption and net exports rates and the corresponding NLLS best curves for SA. 

The top regional contributions to production in 2009 were from Venezuela (36%), Brazil (30%) and Columbia (10).   The top regional consumers were Brazil (42%) Venezuela (11%) and Argentina (8%).

The reported production rate time course has two distinct stages, corresponding to 1965-78 and 1979-2009, which I modeled separately.  Like ME and AF, consumption rates in the SA are well modeled using a single Hubbert equation fit to the entire 1965-2009 time span.  The best fit parameters of Qo, Q∞ and the rate constant "a," obtained from fits to these time ranges, are summarized in Table 6 below:

Table 6 summary of best fit parameter for production and consumption for SA
	Qo (bbs)	Q∞ (bbs)	a (yr-1)
Production 1965-1978	16	48	0.14
Production 1979-2009	18	151	0.066
Consumption 1965-2009	22	277	0.035

For production, the best fit parameters for the two time ranges are consistent with the production rates rapidly increasing in the first stage from 1965-78 at 14 percent per year, followed by a slower rate of increase, 6.6 percent per year, from 1979 to present.  The best fit to the second time range predicts the peak in production occurring in 2008 at 2,5 bbs/yr.

For consumption, a steady increasing rate of consumption at about 3.5 per cent per year is predicted to peak in 2034 at 2.4 bbs/yr, well past the predicted peak in production.

Exports in SA nearly dipped to zero in about 1980 as production declined and consumption increased.  Since then, the export rate has gradually increased, but not nearly to the same peak of  1 bbs/yr in 1968.  The best fit to the present trend in exports predicts that exports peaked in 2002 at 0.6 bbs/yr, although the reported peak export year was 1998 at 0.75 bbs/yr.  The decline in production and the increase in consumption cross in 2018, signifying the year of zero net exports.

North America

Figure 7 presents the reported production, consumption and net exports rates and the corresponding NLLS best curves for NA. 

In 2009, the USA was the major petroleum producer (54 %) followed by Canada (24%) and Mexico (22%).  Previously, I have discussed the trend for a decline in Mexican production so these proportions may not hold going forward.  Consumption was dominated by USA (82%) with Mexico and Canada roughly evenly sharing the remaining consumption. 

The reported production rate time course has three distinct stages corresponding to 1965-76, 1977-90 and 1991-2009, which I modeled separately.  The reported consumption rate has two distinct stages corresponding to 1965-82 and 1983-2009, which I modeled separately. 

The best fit parameters of Qo, Q∞ and the rate constant "a," obtained from fits to these time ranges, are summarized in Table 7 below:

Table 7 summary of best fit parameter for production and consumption for NA
	Qo (bbs)	Q∞ (bbs)	a (yr-1)
Production 1965-1976	31	127	0.15
Production 1977-1990	55	193	0.11
Production 1991-2009	251	567	0.036
Consumption 1965-1982	45	252	0.12
Consumption 1983-2009	211	908	0.040

For production, the best fit parameters for the time ranges are consistent with two earlier periods 1965-76 and 1977-90, with rapidly increasing production rates (15%/yr and 11%/yr, respectively), followed by the present trend of decreasing production at gradual rate of about 3.6 percent per year.  The best fit to the second range predicts that peak production for NA occurred in 1985 at 5.5 bbs/yr. 

For consumption, after the rapid increase in consumption rates at 12 percent per year, peaking in 1978 at nearly 8 bbs/yr, consumption declined until 1984, and then started to increase again at a slower rate of 4 per cent per year.  From the best fit to the second time period, peak consumption is predicted to occur in 2013 at about 9 bbs/yr. 

The closest NA got to in the last half-century having no net imports was in about 1983, with net import of only -1.1 bbs/yr, down from the first maximum in imports of -3.1 bbs/yr in 1977.  Since then, regional imports have increased and are not predicted to peak until 2022 at -4.5 bbs/yr. 

Okay, that finishes my summary of the data analysis done on the seven regions.  Next time, I will discuss the implications these data and the best fit results has for global exports going forward.