This article is a follow-up to address a question I posed at the end of the article, Trends in Nigerian Petroleum Production and Consumption.
After considering the USA’s petroleum imports from its top five source countries, I pondered the question: where did the additional ~1-2 bbs/yr petroleum come from for the years 2004-2009 to account for the discrepancy between the USA’s consumption and the USA’s domestic production, plus the imports from its top 5 importers?
I can now re-phase this question, “from the top 6 importers,” because after considering number six,
Even after considering the top six petroleum importers and domestic production, I still can not account for about 1.5 bbs/yr worth of petroleum imports into the
especially in those peak consumption years around 2005-06. USA
Where did that petroleum come from?
Since posing this question, I have found a source of information that helps shed some light on where in the world the
imports its oil from. The EIA has published a spread sheet entitled, U.S. Total Crude Oil and Products Imports (hereinafter, “Total Imports”). USA
“Total Imports” is a massive spreadsheet that presents average US imports (in units of 1000s of barrels per day) of Crude Oil plus Petroleum Products, for the years 1973 to 2009 from about 30 to 90 difference source countries depending on the year being considered.
It is just what I needed to answer my question.
Top Suppliers of Petroleum Imports to the
in 2009 USA
One thing I would like to correct, from the start, is a mistaken assumption that I had made about Fig. 5.4 of the Annual Energy Review for 2009 (and its associated Table 5.4). Here it is one more time:
My mistake was to assume that the EIA was actually showing the top nine countries in their order of importance. I should have been made more suspicious by the title, “Selected Countries.”
According to the data presented in “Total Imports,” however, the top 10 countries exporting petroleum to the
are presented below. USA
Notice that I have added to
, the separate entry in “Total Imports,” of imports for the US Virgin Islands (VI). As already discussed in Trends in Venezuelan Petroleum Production and Consumption, the VI imports substantially all of its oil from Venezuela Venezuela, and then passes the oil and petroleum products on to the . This would actually put USA Venezuela + VI ahead of Mexico as the second largest petroleum exporter to the in 2009. USA
I find it curious that Fig. 5.4 of the Annual Energy Review excludes
Algeria and Angola but rather includes the . Why would the EIA choose to not feature the imports from UK Algeria and Angola, which together account for about 8 percent of the total exports, and instead, show imports from the , which provided only about 2 percent? According to “Total Imports,” the UK UK is only the twelfth largest supplier, behind at 2.4 percent. Actually, thirteenth, if I were to consider VI separately (VI would be tied with Columbia at 2.4%). Columbia
Maybe the EIA’s goal was to portray the UK as still an important supplier, or, to suggest (by omitting Algeria and Angola) that petroleum from Iraq or Brazil are relatively more important than they actually are.
The values in parenthesis above the bars in Figure 1 show each country’s the exports to the
To account for a larger portion of US imports, I considered all the countries in “Total Imports,” that contributed at least about 1 percent to the total
imports for 2009. I ended up with sixteen countries ( US contributed only 0.92 percent, but I accepted this as about 1 percent) shown in Figure 2 below: Norway
The sum of the imports from these sixteen countries equals about 88% of the
To account for the remaining 12% of the
’s imports, I would have to “scrape lower into the barrel” of importers so to speak. According to “Total Imports,” there were 82 countries that made a "non-zero" contribution to the USA ’s imports in 2009, which for the purposes of the spread sheet was at least 1000 barrels/day. USA
The sum from all 82 countries equaled 4.3 bbl/yr which added to US production of 2.6 bbl/yr gives 6.9 bbl/yr which is just slightly higher than the reported consumption of 6.8 bbl/yr. Perhaps the discrepancy is a rounding error, or, because the 6.8 bbl/yr value is from the BP Statistical Review, while the 6.9 bbl/yr is from the EIA’s “Total Imports.”
Thirty-three countries each contributed from 0.1 to 0.9 percent of USA’s total imports. These countries, 17 through 50, in total contributed about 11 percent of the USA's imports. The top five among this group are Equatorial Guinea (0.76%); Trinidad & Tobago (0.72%); Libya (0.68%); Azerbaijan (0.64%) and Chad (0.59%). The remaining thirty-one countries (e.g., countries like
Japan, Qatar, China, Egypt, Malaysia etc...) each contributed less than 0.1 percent of USA's imports, and in total contributed about 1% of the 's imports. USA
Historic Petroleum Imports to the
from the Top Importers of 2009 USA
Figure 3 shows how well these top 10, or top 16, import source countries account for
’s imports in the past. Figure 3 is a variation on Figure 4, which still shows production and consumption data from the USA and my best fits, but replaces the export data derived from BP statistical review, and my NLLS analysis of this data, with the import data presented in “Total Imports.” USA
Also shown is the additional contribution from the remaining countries 17-81 (with VI’s exports combined with Venezuelan).
Figure 4 casts the data shown in Figure 3 in percentage terms. That is, for each year, USA reported production plus the imports from the top 10 importers for 2009 (i.e., the countries shown in Fig.2), the top 16 importer for 2009 (i.e., the countries shown in Fig. 3), and all of the importers (i.e. at least 1000 b/d) for the year in question are shown as a percentage relative to reported consumption for the year in question.
For the entire 36 year period,
That dip centered at 1978 is due the fact that, back then, there were significant sources of imports from a number countries that are not among the top 10 or top 16 providers in 2009, as illustrated in Figure 5 below:
Figure 5 considers all of the countries in 1978 that contributed at least about 1% to the
Using the top 10 importers to predict
Not withstanding the discrepancy in late 1970s, the sum of USA production plus the imports from the top 10 importers for 2009 accounts for a fairly constant 86 percent of USA consumption for a plus-three decade period of time. This suggests that these data would be useful for predicting the
’s consumption going forward. USA
For instance, consider Figure 6 below, which presents the sameWith the exception of the late 1970s, the solid green line tracks the reported
production and consumption data as shown in Figure 3: USA
This analysis gives me some assurance that by just considering and predicting
USA production and imports from the top 10 importers, I can make a reasonably accurate prediction of consumption going forward. USA
Now, I just need to finish the analysis for the remaining top 10:
Algeria, Angola, Iraq and ! Brazil