Survey of Oil Exports from North Africa

Twitter is ablaze with talk of the protests planned by some Saudi citizens next Friday. Saudi troops are already being deployed around the Kingdom. Before there was any sense that contagion might spread even to Saudi Arabia, some analysts were warning of $220 oil ….”only” if Libyan and Algerian oil production was affected. Now one analyst says this of the prospect of Saudi disruption: “this is when you can come up with pretty much any silly number you want.” from: A time of consequences

As we reach March 11, 2011, the designated “day of rage” in Saudi Arabia, and perhaps in other countries in the region, speculation is running rampant that oil will reach $200/b, and up, on fears that civil unrest will curtail the ~9 mbd of Saudi Arabia production, thereby causing oil exports to Europe, Asia and North America to sharply decline. 

This article rounds out my survey of petroleum export trends for the countries of the Middle East and North Africa.  In a previous article, I surveyed the 14 countries of the Middle East; this article surveys the 14 countries of North Africa. 

The survey examines the effects such a curtailment might have on oil exports from North Africa, and the Middle East. 

A Brief Geography Lesson

Solar navigator gives a concise definition for the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) countries:

Northern Africa is the northernmost region of the African continent, generally divided by the formidable barrier of the Sahara from Sub-Saharan Africa. Geopolitically, the UN definition of Northern Africa (which coincides with common reckonings of the region) includes the following seven territories:  Algeria Egypt  Libya Morocco  Sudan Tunisia  Western Sahara *

Geographically, the Azores, Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti are sometimes included.

The Maghreb includes Western Sahara (claimed by Morocco), Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Mauritania and Libya. North Africa generally is often included in common definitions of the Middle East, since they in many respects have closer ties to Western Asia than to sub-saharan Africa. In addition, the Sinai Peninsula of Egypt is part of Asia, making Egypt a transcontinental country.

For the purposes of these two articles, I have defined the countries of the Middle East and North Africa geographically, as shown in this map (from Nations online):

Survey of the North African Countries

Unless otherwise indicated, my data sources are the same as identified in the first article in this series.  Additionally, to better estimate the percentages of Middle East and North Africa exports going to EU and USA, I relied on 2009 data presented in the EU’s Market observatory: EU Crude oil imports and the EIA’s U.S. Total Crude Oil and Products Imports, respectively. I am not aware of similar statistics available for Asian countries.  However the EIA country analysis briefs gave enough commentary for me to make a reasonable estimate for Asia. 

For the graphs to follow, the left axis is in units of billions of barrels of petroleum per year (bbs/yr); the right axis is in units of millions of people.  Note that the vertical scale is not constant from country to country.

Algeria

Religion: 99% Sunni Muslim (state religion)

Population: 34.6 million; growth rate 1.2%

CIA:

GDP per Capita: $7,400 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: 25.7% of GDP (2010 est.)

Population below Poverty line 23% (2006 est.)

• Hydrocarbons have long been the backbone of the economy, accounting for roughly 60% of budget revenues, 30% of GDP, and over 95% of export earnings. It ranks 16th in oil reserves. Thanks to strong hydrocarbon revenues, Algeria has a cushion of $150 billion in foreign currency reserves and a large hydrocarbon stabilization fund.

EIA:

• In 2008...Algeria was the fourth largest crude oil producer in Africa and the largest total oil liquids producer on the continent.  As a member of OPEC, Algeria's crude oil production can be constrained by the group’s crude production allocations, but Algeria also produced 450,000 bbl/d of condensate and 357,000 bbl/d of natural gas liquids, which are exempt from OPEC quotas, bringing total oil liquids production for the year up to a total of 2.23 million bbl/d. Domestic oil consumption accounted for about 13 percent of total production.
• Top petroleum export destinations: Europe (34%); USA (28%)

Recent Petroleum Export Trend: Declining (production flat to declining; consumption increasing)

Chad

Religion: 51% Muslim, 35% Christian, 7% animist

Population: 10.5 million; growth rate 2%

CIA:

GDP per Capita: $1,800 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: no data

Population below Poverty line 80% (2001 est.)

• Chad's primarily agricultural economy will continue to be boosted by major foreign direct investment projects in the oil sector that began in 2000. At least 80% of Chad's population relies on subsistence farming and livestock raising for its livelihood.
• A consortium led by two US companies has been investing $3.7 billion to develop oil reserves - estimated at 1 billion barrels - in southern Chad. Chinese companies are also expanding exploration efforts and are currently building a 300-km pipeline and the country's first refinery. The nation's total oil reserves are estimated at 1.5 billion barrels. Oil production came on stream in late 2003. Chad began to export oil in 2004.

EIA:

no Country Analysis Brief

Recent Petroleum Export Trend: declining (declining production; no consumption)

Chad has very little domestic oil production and very low domestic consumption

Djibouti

Religion: Muslim 94%, Christian 6%

Population: 0.7 million; growth rate 2.2%

CIA:

GDP per Capita: $2,800 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: no data

Population below Poverty line 42% (2007 est.)

• Two-thirds of Djibouti's inhabitants live in the capital city; the remainder are mostly nomadic herders. Scanty rainfall limits crop production to fruits and vegetables, and most food must be imported.
• Djibouti provides services as both a transit port for the region and an international transshipment and refueling center.
• Djibouti is home to France's largest military base in Africa, and since 2001, the U.S. military's Combined Task Force, Horn of Africa, now numbering about 3,000 troops, has been based there. from Djibouti Rebels Threatening Stability in Strategic Country

EIA:

no Country Analysis Brief

Recent Petroleum Import Trend: increasing (no production; increasing consumption)

Djibouti has no domestic oil production and very low domestic consumption.

Egypt

Religion: Muslim (mostly Sunni) 90%, Coptic 9%, other Christian 1%

Population: 80.5 million; growth rate 2%

CIA

GDP per Capita: $6,200 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: 80.5% of GDP (2010 est.)

Population below Poverty line 20% (2005 est.)

EIA:

• Hydrocarbons play a sizeable role in Egypt’s economy both from oil and natural gas production and also in terms of revenues from the Suez Canal, an important transit point for oil shipments out of the Persian Gulf. Total oil production, however, has declined since the country’s 1996 peak of close to 935,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) to current levels of about 660,000 bbl/d. Egypt’s consumption is slightly higher than production and the country has begun to rely on a small volume of imports to meet domestic demand. Egypt also has the largest oil refining sector in Africa and since refining capacity now exceeds domestic demand, some non-Egyptian crudes are currently imported for processing and re-export
• Decreases in oil production have been offset by the rapid development of the natural gas sector for both domestic consumption and export. Over the past decade, Egypt has become a significant natural gas producer and a strategic source for European natural gas imports. Egypt currently has a pipeline network for exports to Eastern Mediterranean countries in addition to liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Europe, Asia, and the Americas. However, increasing domestic demand for natural gas has led the government to stall natural gas export expansion plans. The government has been actively working to attract foreign investments in the sector to increase exploration, production and downstream activities.

Recent Petroleum Export Trend: Egypt hit net zero petroleum exports in 2009

 (decreasing production; increasing consumption)

Eritea

Religion: Muslim, Coptic Christian, Roman Catholic, Protestant (no percentages given by the CIA)

Population: 5.8 million; growth rate 2.5%

CIA

GDP per Capita: $700 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: no data

Population below Poverty line 50% (2004 est.)

• Like the economies of many African nations, a large share of the population - nearly 80% - is engaged in subsistence agriculture, but they produce only a small share of total output. Since the conclusion of the Ethiopian-Eritrea war in 2000, the government has maintained a firm grip on the economy, expanding the use of the military and party-owned businesses to complete Eritrea's development agenda
• Eritrea has been accused by the West and the United Nations of supporting Islamist insurgents in Somalia as part of a proxy war against Ethiopia. from Djibouti Rebels Threatening Stability in Strategic Country

EIA:

no Country Analysis Brief

Recent Petroleum ImportTrend: flat (no production; flat consumption)

Eritea has no domestic oil production and very low domestic consumption

Ethiopia

Religion: Orthodox 43.5%, Muslim 33.9%, Protestant 18.6%, traditional 2.6%, Catholic 0.7%, other 0.7% (2007 Census)

Population: 88 million; growth rate 3.2%

CIA

GDP per Capita: $1,000 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: 39.3% of GDP (2010 est.)

Population below Poverty line 38.7% (FY05/06 est.)

• Ethiopia's poverty-stricken economy is based on agriculture, accounting for almost 45% of GDP, and 85% of total employment; Under Ethiopia's constitution, the state owns all land and provides long-term leases to the tenants.
• Ethiopian troops, backed by the USA, moved into Somalian territory from 2006-2009 at the invitation of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and Somali troops from Puntland in a failed attempt to overcome the Islamic Court Union (ICU), and other affiliated militias for control of the country. War in Somalia (2006–2009)

EIA:

no Country Analysis Brief

Recent Petroleum ImportTrend: strongly increasing (no production; strongly increasing consumption)  Ethiopia has no domestic oil production and increasing domestic consumption, probably due to a rapidly increasing population

Libya

Religion: 97% Sunni Muslim

Population: 6.5 million; growth rate 2.1%

CIA

GDP per Capita: $13,800 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: 3.3% of GDP (2010 est.)

Population below Poverty line 33%

• The Libyan economy depends primarily upon revenues from the oil sector, which contribute about 95% of export earnings, 25% of GDP, and 80% of government revenue. The weakness in world hydrocarbon prices in 2009 reduced Libyan government tax income and constrained economic growth.
• Substantial revenues from the energy sector coupled with a small population give Libya one of the highest per capita GDPs in Africa, but little of this income flows down to the lower orders of society.

EIA:

• The Libyan economy is heavily dependent on the hydrocarbon industry which, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), accounted for over 95 percent of export earnings in 2010
• Top petroleum export destinations: Europe (85%); USA (3%)

Recent Petroleum Export Trend: Flat (production and consumption both flat)

Mali

Religion: Muslim 90%, Christian 1%, indigenous beliefs 9%

Population: 14 million; growth rate 2.6%

CIA

GDP per Capita: $1,200 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: no data

Population below Poverty line 36.1% (2005 est.)

• Among the 25 poorest countries in the world, Mali is a landlocked country highly dependent on gold mining and agricultural exports for revenue.

EIA:

no Country Analysis Brief

Recent Petroleum ImportTrend: increasing (no production; increasing consumption)  Mali has no domestic oil production and very low but increasing domestic consumption.

Mauritania

Religion: Muslim 100%

Population: 3.2 million; growth rate 2.4%

CIA

GDP per Capita: $2,100 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: Mauritania qualified for debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative and nearly all of its foreign debt has since been forgiven.

Population below Poverty line 40% (2004 est.)

• Half the population still depends on agriculture and livestock for a livelihood, even though many of the nomads and subsistence farmers were forced into the cities by recurrent droughts in the 1970s and 1980s.
• Oil production from the country's only oil field, the Chinguetti Field, has been disappointing. Production at the field plummeted from an estimated 30,620 b/d in 2006 to 14,900 b/d in 2007, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Output at Chinguetti struggled from the outset of production in 2006 due to a complex, fractured reservoir. Production is expected to fall further. from Petronas Hits Gas Offshore Mauritania
• Petronas has failed to find hydrocarbons in the Gharabi-1 well in Block 6 offshore Mauritania. The well has been plugged and abandoned. from Petronas Drills Duster Offshore Mauritania

EIA:

no Country Analysis Brief

Recent Petroleum ImportTrend: increasing (a brief spurt of production is rapidly declining and consumption is slightly declining constant) Mauritania has little domestic oil production and very low domestic consumption

Morocco

Religion: 98.7% Muslim, 1.1% Christian

Population: 32 million; growth rate 1.1%

CIA

GDP per Capita: $4,900 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: 58.2% of GDP (2010 est.)

Population below Poverty line 15% (2007 est.)

• Morocco's market economy benefits from the country's relatively low labor costs and proximity to Europe, which aid key areas of the economy such as agriculture, light manufacturing, tourism, and remittances.
• Morocco is the world's largest exporter of phosphate, which has long provided a source of export earnings and economic stability.

EIA:

no Country Analysis Brief

Recent Petroleum ImportTrend: increasing (almost no production and increasing consumption) Moroco has no domestic oil production and low domestic consumption

Niger

Religion: Muslim 80%, other (includes indigenous beliefs and Christian) 20%

Population: 16 million; growth rate 3.7%

CIA

GDP per Capita: $700 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: 58.2% of GDP (2010 est.) Niger qualified for enhanced debt relief under the International Monetary Fund program for Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) and concluded an agreement with the Fund on a Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF).

Population below Poverty line 63% (1993 est.)

• Niger is a landlocked, Sub-Saharan nation, whose economy centers on subsistence crops, livestock, and some of the world's largest uranium deposits. Drought, desertification, and strong population growth have undercut the economy. 
• Niger is one of the poorest countries in the world with minimal government services and insufficient funds to develop its resource base.

EIA:

no Country Analysis Brief

Recent Petroleum ImportTrend: increasing (no production and increasing consumption) Nuger has no domestic oil production and low domestic consumption

Sudan

Religion: Muslim Sunni Muslim 70% (in north), Christian 5% (mostly in south and Khartoum), indigenous beliefs 25%

Population: 44 million; growth rate 2.5%

CIA

GDP per Capita: $2,200 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: 94.2% of GDP (2010 est.)

Population below Poverty line 63% (1993 est.)

• Military regimes favoring Islamic-oriented governments have dominated national politics since independence from the UK in 1956.  The Darfur conflict, the aftermath of two decades of civil war in the south, the lack of basic infrastructure in large areas, and a reliance by much of the population on subsistence agriculture ensure much of the population will remain at or below the poverty line for years to come despite rapid rises in average per capita income.  
• While the oil sector continues to drive growth, services and utilities play an increasingly important role in the economy with agriculture production remaining important as it employs 80% of the work force and contributes a third of GDP.

EIA:

• In 2009, according to the International Monetary Fund, oil represented over 90 percent of export earnings. For South Sudan (Juba), oil represented 98 percent of total revenues for the year compared to Khartoum at 65 percent.
• The majority of reserves are located in the South in the Muglad and Melut basins. Due to civil conflict, oil exploration has mostly been limited to the central and south-central regions of the country.
• The United States prohibits U.S. nationals are prohibited from engaging in any transactions or activities related to the petroleum or petrochemical industries in the entire territory of Sudan (including Southern Sudan) as a result of the conflict in Darfur.
• Top petroleum export destinations: over 97% of exports go to Asia: China (65%) ; Indonsia (15%) ; Japan (12%) ; India (5%); Ethiopia imports most of its fuel from Sudan but official data on trade volumes is not available

Recent Petroleum Export Trend: Rapidly Increasing (production increasing faster than increasing consumption)

Tunisia

Religion: Muslim 98%, Christian 1%, Jewish and other 1%

Population: 10 million; growth rate 1%

CIA

GDP per Capita: $9,500 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: 49.5% of GDP (2010 est.)

Population below Poverty line 3.8% (2005 est.)

• The country's first president, BOURGUIBA, established a strict one-party state. He dominated the country for 31 years, repressing Islamic fundamentalism and establishing rights for women unmatched by any other Arab nation. In November 1987, BOURGUIBA was removed from office and replaced by BEN ALI in a bloodless coup.
• Street protests that began in Tunis in December 2010 over high unemployment, corruption, widespread poverty, and high food prices escalated in January 2011, culminating in rioting that led to hundreds of deaths. On 14 January 2011, the same day ALI dismissed the government, he fled the country, and by late January 2011, Prime Minister GHANNOUCHI announced the formation of a "national unity government" with the head of the Chamber of Deputies, M'BAZAA, as the interim president.
• Tunisia has a diverse economy, with important agricultural, mining, tourism, and manufacturing sectors. Governmental control of economic affairs while still heavy has gradually lessened over the past decade with increasing privatization, simplification of the tax structure, and a prudent approach to debt.

EIA:

no Country Analysis Brief

Recent Petroleum Export Trend: Increasing (increasing production and declining consumption) after hitting zero net exports in about 2001 Tunia has increased production and decreased consumption sufficiently to be a slightly net positive exporter once again.

West Sahara

Religion: Muslim

Population: 0.5 million; growth rate 3.2%

CIA

GDP per Capita: $2,500 (2007 est.)

Public Debt: no data

Population below Poverty line no data

• Morocco annexed the northern two-thirds of Western Sahara (formerly Spanish Sahara) in 1976 and claimed the rest of the territory in 1979, following Mauritania's withdrawal. A guerrilla war with the Polisario Front contesting Morocco's sovereignty ended in a 1991 UN-brokered cease-fire
• Western Sahara has a small market-based economy whose main industries are fishing, phosphate mining, and pastoral nomadism. The territory's arid desert climate makes sedentary agriculture difficult, and Western Sahara imports much of its food.

EIA:

no Country Analysis Brief

Recent Petroleum Import Trend: Increasing (no production and consumption increasing)

Summary and Conclusions

As with the Middle East Survey, by just looking at these plotsm you can see that the overall trend in production rates is flat or down while consumption rates are up—even for the countries with no production.

Similar to the Middle East survey, there are a few North African countries have increasing exports, but their rapid population growth will tend to mitigate any increase in exports as domestic consumption increases.  An exception to this is Sudan, but the relative amount of oil produced by Sudan is quite small.

Of these fourteenNorth African countries, nine are importers: Djibouti, Egypt (starting 2009), Eritea, Ethiopia, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Niger and West Sahara.  Several of these are among the poorest countries in the world.  The percentage of the population below the poverty line ranges for 36 to 63% for all of these importing countries, except Egypt (20%) and Morocco (15%).  Morocco has other income sources, while Egypt just recently hit net zero exports.  I expect the percentage of the population falling below the poverty line Egypt will soon joining the percentages of other importers.

One point made very clear by this survey is that that population growth does not require oil consumption, at least not directly.  Just look at Ethiopia  and Niger with +3% population growth rates, but still very low oil consumption rates.  These are insanely high population growth rates, but on a per capita basis, oil consumption is about as low as you will see anywhere in the world: less than 0.2 b/p•yr. Perhaps the population growth is fueled indirectly by petroelum through foreign aid and food imports. More on the population growth from these, and the other importing countries later on.

Tunisia was a petroelum importer for several years in the early 2000s, but recently has become an exporter again, although the amount of exports is very small.  Tunsia does have other sources of income, which helps to explain why the percentage of the population below the poverty line (3.8%) is the lowest in North Africa, and why the country has a relatively high GDP per capita.  It would seem that the civil unrest that started in Tunisia and spread across the Middle East has less to due with oil and poverty, and more to due with religious repression, and a forced move towards western style secularism, that is not supported by the majority Muslim population.  You don’t hear this in the mainstream media, but, Tunisia is not rushing to democracy, rather it is about to become a fundamentalist Islamic republic similar to Iran (Secular Tunisia may face a new, younger Islamist challenge; End to hijab ban mooted in Tunisia – the end of secularism?; Islamist movement at forefront of Tunisia's protests). 

Of the five petroelum exporters, only three: Algeria, Libya and Sudan have exports that are large enough in magnitude to be of much global significance. Algeria splits its exports between Europe (34%), North America (28%) and probably the remainder to Asia, while Libya send almost all its exports to Europe, and Sudan send almost all of its oil to Asia. 

Surveying the Middle East and North Africa Exporters as a Group

The bar graph below shows the 15 countries with net position petroleum exports in order of the quantity exported.  The green arrows show the recent export trend for each country.

Petroleum exports from the Middle East and North Africa in total equaled 8 bbs/yr in 2009, corresponding to about 48% of total global exports. 

Saudi Arabia is the dominant exporter for the region, accounting for one-third (2.7 bbs/yr) of the 8 bbs/yr exported in 2009.  North African exports accounts for another 19% (1.5 bbs/yr) and the other countries of the Middle East make up the remaining 42% of exports.

The curtailment of exports from the Middle East and North Africa would impact Asia the most, then Europe and then the USA, as this table shows:

Region	Exports from ME & NA
Asia	3.8 bbs/yr
Europe	1.2 bbs/yr
USA	0.8 bbs/yr

Looking at this, one might be tempted to say that the civil unrest in the Middle East and North Africa and potential loss of petroelum exports is mainly Asia’s problem, and, there is some truth to that.  But, so long as petroelum remains a fungible quantity, Asia’s lost imports would rapidly translate into higher prices for all importers (and greater profits for the exporters).

The figure below shows the sum of petroelum production, consumption and exports for the 15 exporting countries of Middle East and North Africa, their populations, and projected future populations, as predicted by the US census bureau. 

The trends for production rates peaking (blue) and consumption rate increasing (red) has a clear consequence: flat to falling export rate (green). 

The total population for the 15 exporting MENA countries in 2010 was estimated to be 297 million—that's a little less than the USA’s population.  But at a composite 2%/yr growth rate, by 2030, that population is expected to grow to 400 million.  I would expect the domestic consumption rate to at least match the population growth and increase by 2%/yr.  However, the recent 5 year trend is for petroleum consumption rates to be more than double this rate: 4.1%/yr.  Therefore, even if production stays flat, I expect export rates to decline.

What about the oil importing neighbors of the 15 exporting countries?

The dashed red line in the figure adds in the consumption rates from the 13 oil importing MENA countries.  As expected from the country by country survey, their total consumption rate is small (20%) compared to the sum of consumption rates of the 15 exporting countries.

The dashed black line adds in the population of the 13 importing countries, which in 2010, equaled about 154 million. That puts the total population of the MENA countries at over half-a billion (554 million).  By 2030, the population of the 13 importing countries is projected to grow by another 200 million people, putting the total population for the MENA at 800 million.  A population of one-billion is projected to be reached by 2045. 

If the population increases anything close to these numbers, I expect that the entire region's economy to be disrupted by the additional stresses to the environment, the food supply, the water supply that this will cause, and all this in the face of declining revenues from petroelum exports. 

Except for Ethiopia and Israel, all of the MENA countries are majority Muslim in religious belief system.  I expect that if the general population in these countries get their way, then eventually all of these countries will shift to a fundamentalist Islamic republic style of government that is less friendly towards the West and less inclined to export as much of  their declining petroelum resourse as they have in the past.  However, they will still probaly have to export petroelum, essentially in exchange for food to feed the exploding population in the region.  And when the oil exports end?  Well....I think that you can see the likely result as well as I can: increasing poverty, starvation, civil unrest and war.

Survey of Oil Exports from the Middle East

With all of the current strife in the Middle East and North Africa hitting the main stream media, I thought it would be interesting to examine the petroleum export trends for the countries in these regions.

My hypothesis is that as the exports for oil exporting countries go into decline, this stress on the economy will increase the likelihood of civil unrest and political upheaval.  Especially those countries which are heavily dependent upon petroleum exports for revenue will suffer sever economic contractions as export revenues decline and then ceases altogether.  These ex-exporters will then either have to decrease their domestic consumption or start importing petroleum.  The transition from exporter to importer would not be easy, and cutting consumption, to maintain exports, would not go over very well, politically either.   With little other revenue sources, declining rates of petroleum exports are a formula for civil unrest and regime change.

Other factors being equal, I would expect that the greatest potential for civil unrest would be in those countries with present high standard-of-living (e.g., GDP per capita) and which are at or headed towards net zero exports.  Of course, all the other factors are usually not equal, and so I considered a few other factors as well.  Population growth, in particular, looks quite troubling for these regions.

In this article, I survey the fourteen countries of the Middle East.  This is actually part of a larger on-going study that I am conducting to quantitatively examine global oil production, consumption and export trends. 

Data Sources

All production, consumption and export rate are reported in units of billions of barrels per year (bbs/yr).  I used this to calculate net exports (or imports) as production minus domestic consumption. The petroleum production and consumption data I gathered from both the EIA Energy Profiles and BP Statistical Review.   Population data, plotted on the right axis in units of millions, was extracted from the US Census Bureau International Database, as were 2010 estimates of the growth rates.  GDP per capita (purchasing power parity corrected) and public debt, as a percentage of GDP, are as reported in the CIA World Fact Book entry for each country. Predominant religions are as reported in Religion Facts, or, in the CIA World Fact Book.

When reported in the CIA fact book or EIA country analysis brief, I also present the destinations of the oil exported by the countries being considered and the proportion of federal income or GDP that is dependent on the petroleum industry.  Unfortunately, this information is not consistently presented for every exporting country.

Both of the EIA Energy Profile and BP Statistical Review data bases have their flaws, if one’s goal is to examine long term production and consumption trends on a country-by-country basis.

The BP statistical review nicely shows data back to 1965, but, only shows data for about the top 40 highest consuming or producing countries, which are not necessarily the same countries.  Lower consumption or production countries get lumped together within a geographic region. 

The EIA nicely shows both consumption and production data separately for nearly every country in the world, but, this data is only presented from 1980 on, and so longer term trends can be difficult to see.

Generally, the BP and EIA data are in good agreement—one exception being when a country, like Brazil, has significant “other liquids” production (i.e., ethanol) which the BP data does not include. However, that is not the case for the present countries.

Okay, enough ranting about data bases, without further adieu, here’s my survey and assessment of the recent petroleum export trends (the big green arrow in the figure for those who will not read).

Survey of the Middle Eastern Countries

Bahrain

Religion: 100% Muslim (70% Shi'a, 30% Sunni)

Population: 1.1 million; growth rate 3%

CIA:

GDP per Capita: $40,400 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: 59.2% of GDP (2010 est.)

Petroleum production and refining account for more than 60% of Bahrain's export receipts, 70% of government revenues, and 11% of GDP (exclusive of allied industries).

EIA:

no report

Recent Petroleum Export Trend: Hitting net-zero exports now (production declining; consumption rapidly increasing).

Iran

Religion: 98% Muslim (89% Shi'a, 9% Sunni)

Population: 77 million; growth rate 1.3%

CIA:

GDP per Capita: $11,200 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: 16.2% of GDP (2010 est.)

Population below poverty line: 18% (2007 est.)

EIA:

Oil accounts for 44% of total energy consumption; Nat gas is 53%

Oil exports provide approximately half of Iran’s government revenues, while crude oil and its derivatives account for nearly 80% of Iran’s total exports.

Iran is OPEC’s second-largest producer and exporter after Saudi Arabia

Top petroleum export destinations (2008): Japan, China, India, S Korea (60% of total); Italy, Spain, Greece, France, (19% of total)

Recent Petroleum Export Trend: Flat (production and consumption both increasing at about the same rate)

Iraq

Religion: 97% Muslim (60% Shi'a, 37% Sunni)

Population: 30 million; growth rate 2.4%

CIA:

GDP per Capita: $3,600 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: no data

Population below poverty line: 25% (2008 est.)

The oil sector provides over 90% of government revenue and 80% of foreign exchange earnings.

EIA:

Oil accounts for 96% of total energy consumption; Nat gas is 4%

Top petroleum export destinations: Asia (47% of total); Europe (22% of total); Western Hemisphere (30%)

Recent Petroleum Export Trend: Increasing (production increasing faster than increasing consumption).

Israel

Religion: 14.6% Muslim (mostly Sunni), 80% Jewish, 2% Christian

Population: 7.3million; growth rate 1.6%

CIA:

GDP per Capita: $29,500 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: 77.3% of GDP (2010 est.)

Population below poverty line: 24%

EIA:

no report

Recent Petroleum Import Trend: declining (no production; declining consumption)

Israel has almost no domestic oil production and imports substantially all of its petroleum.

Jordan

Religion: 92% Sunni Muslim, 6% Orthodox

Population: 6.2 million; growth rate 2.2%

CIA:

GDP per Capita: $5,300 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: 61.4% of GDP (2010 est.)

Population below poverty line: 14.2% (2002)

EIA:

no report

Recent Petroleum Import Trend: declining (no production; declining consumption)

Jordan has no domestic oil production and imports substantially all of its petroleum.

Kuwait

Religion: 85% Muslim (70% Sunni, 30 Shi'a), 15% Christian, Hindu, Parsi, other

Population: 2.5 million; growth rate 2.1%

Concerning the drop in 1991, from Population of Kuwait:

In 1985, the population reached 1.697.301 persons, comprised 56% males and 44% females. In 1990, the population reached 2.141.465 persons. The percentage of non-Kuwaitis scored 72%. In same year, the Iraqi aggression against Kuwait occurred. As a result, large number of the non-Kuwaitis emigrated. Hence, major changes in the population structure took place.

CIA:

GDP per Capita: $51,700 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: 12.6% of GDP (2010 est.)

Population below poverty line: no data

Petroleum accounts for nearly half of GDP, 95% of export revenues, and 95% of government income.

EIA:

Kuwait's economy is heavily dependent on oil export revenues which account for roughly 90 percent of total export earnings.

Top petroleum export destinations: Japan, S Korea, India, Taiwan, Singapore, China (64% of total); USA (8.7% of total); Western Europe (7.5%)

Recent Petroleum Export Trend: Flat (production and consumption both increasing at about the same rate).

Lebanon

Religion: 60% Muslim, 39% Christian

Population: 4.1million; growth rate 0.6%

CIA:

GDP per Capita: $14,200 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: 150.7% of GDP (2010 est.)

Population below poverty line: 28% (1999 est.)

EIA:

no report

Recent Petroleum Import Trend: flat (no production; flat consumption)

Lebanon has no domestic oil production and imports substantially all of its petroleum.

Oman

Religion: Ibadhi Muslim 75%, 25% other (includes Sunni Muslim, Shia Muslim, Hindu)

Population: 3 million; growth rate 2%

CIA:

GDP per Capita: $25,800 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: 4.4% of GDP (2010 est.)

Population below poverty line: no data

Oman is a middle-income economy that is heavily dependent on dwindling oil resources. By using enhanced oil recovery techniques, Oman succeeded in increasing oil production, giving the country more time to diversify.

EIA:

Though Oman is a significant net exporter of petroleum, they are not a member of OPEC. As is the case with other exports from the Gulf, Asia provides the main consumer markets for Omani crude, led by China and Japan.

Exports of natural gas have diversified the economy away from oil, but Oman will remain highly dependent on its hydrocarbon sectors for the foreseeable future. Oman is pursuing economic diversification, however its industrialization program is itself reliant upon increased volumes of petroleum and natural gas as feedstock.

Recent Petroleum Export Trend: Flat (production and consumption both increasing).

Palestine

(data from Palestinian Territories Fact Sheet)

Religion: The West Bank is 75% Muslim (predominantly Sunni), 17% Jewish, and 8% Christian and other. The Gaza Strip is 98.7% Muslim (predominantly Sunni), 0.7% Christian, and 0.6% Jewish.

Population: 4 million; growth rate 3.6% (based on the statement that the population will double in 20 yrs)

GDP per Capita: $3,000 (based on a GDP of $12 billion)

Population below poverty line: 46%

CIA:

no report

EIA:

no report

Recent Petroleum Import Trend: increasing (no production; increasing consumption) Palestine has no domestic oil production and imports substantially all of its petroleum.

Qatar

Religion: Muslim 77.5%, Christian 8.5%, other 14% (2004 census)

Population: 840,000; growth rate 0.9%

CIA:

GDP per Capita: $145,300 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: 10.3% of GDP (2010 est.)

Population below poverty line: no data

EIA:

Oil accounts for 25% of total energy consumption; Nat gas is 75%

Though Qatar’s petroleum production has grown steadily since 2002, Qatar’s fields are maturing, and output at Dukhan – formerly the largest producing field – is in decline. To offset anticipated declines, enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques are being considered for several fields.

The vast majority of Qatar’s oil exports are sent to Asian economies. Japan is the single largest importer, though South Korea is also an important export market.

Recent Petroleum Export Trend: Increasing (production increasing faster than increasing consumption).

Saudi Arabia

Religion: Muslim 100%

Population: 26 million; growth rate 1.5%

CIA:

GDP per Capita: $24,200 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: 16.7% of GDP (2010 est.)

Population below poverty line: no data

The petroleum sector accounts for roughly 80% of budget revenues, 45% of GDP, and 90% of export earnings

EIA:

Oil accounts for 56% of total energy consumption; Nat gas is 44%

Saudi Arabia exported an estimated 7.3 mbd of petroleum liquids in 2009 (7.5 mbd in 2010), the majority of which was crude oil. Asia now receives an estimated 55 percent of Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports, as well as the majority of its refined petroleum product and natural gas liquids (NGL) exports.

Top petroleum export destinations: Far East (57% of total); USA (14% of total); Europe/Mediterranean (9%)

Recent Petroleum Export Trend: Flat to declining (production flat; consumption increasing).

Syria

Religion: 74% Sunni Muslim, 16% other Muslim sects, 10% Christian

Population: 22 million; growth rate 2%

CIA:

GDP per Capita: $4,800 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: 29.8% of GDP (2010 est.)

Population below poverty line: 11.9% (2006 est.)

Long-run economic constraints include declining oil production, high unemployment, rising budget deficits, and increasing pressure on water supplies caused by heavy use in agriculture, rapid population growth, industrial expansion, and water pollution.

EIA:

Oil production has stabilized after falling for a number of years, and is poised to turn around as new fields come on line. While much of its oil is exported to Europe, Syria's natural gas is used in reinjection for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and for domestic electricity generation. Syrian crude oil exports go mostly to OECD European countries, in particular Germany, Italy, and France, totaling an estimated 143,000 bbl/d in 2009, according to International Energy Agency (IEA) data.

Recent Petroleum Export Trend: Declining (production declining; consumption increasing).

Unite Arab Emirates

Religion: 96% Muslim (16% Shi'a),

Population: 5.1 million; growth rate 3.6%

CIA:

GDP per Capita: $40,200 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: 44.6% of GDP (2010 est.)

Population below poverty line: 19.5% (2003)

Dependence on oil, a large expatriate workforce, and growing inflation pressures are significant long-term challenges.

EIA:

The UAE has been able to maintain its proven reserves over the last decade primarily due to enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technologies increasing extraction rates of mature oil projects combined with higher oil prices making more reserves commercially viable.

In 2009, the UAE exported 2.3 mbd, predominantly to Asian markets. Japan is the main market for UAE petroleum exports, encompassing 40 percent of its export volumes. South Korea and Thailand are the other major destinations for Emirati crude.

Recent Petroleum Export Trend: Flat (both production and consumption increasing).

Yemen

Religion: Muslim including Shaf'i (Sunni) and Zaydi (Shia), small numbers of Jewish, Christian, and Hindu

Population: 23 million; growth rate 2.7%

CIA:

GDP per Capita: $2,600 (2010 est.)

Public Debt: 39.1% of GDP (2010 est.)

Population below poverty line: 45.2% (2003)

Yemen is a low income country that is highly dependent on declining oil resources for revenue. Petroleum accounts for roughly 25% of GDP and 70% of government revenue.

EIA:

Yemen's economy is heavily dependent on hydrocarbons, which account for 30 percent of GDP, nearly 75 percent of government revenues, and over 90 percent of foreign exchange earnings.

Production has been declining steadily since reaching a peak of 440,000 bbl/d in 2001. EIA estimates oil output will decrease further to 250,000 bbl/d in 2011 and 2012.

As domestic oil consumption rises, net exports are falling along with production. Net oil exports were 150,700 bbl/d in 2008. Yemen's net imports of refined oil products in 2007, the most recent data available, were estimated at 43,000 bbl/d, mainly distillate and residual oils. Asian countries account for the majority of Yemen's oil exports.

Recent Petroleum Export Trend: Declining (production declining and consumption increasing).

Summary and Conclusions

Well even if you just looked at the pictures you might have the same over reaction as I do which is: does anything look good here?  No, not really, but some countries certainly look much worse than others and are currently in the throes of dealing with declining exports, while other look like declines are about to start.  Only a few actually have increasing exports, but the rapid population growth in the countries will mitigate the increase in exports as domestic consumption increases. 

Of these fourteen countries, four are importers: Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, and Palestine.  None of these countries have any significant domestic production and they have to import essentially all of their petroleum. Israel, Jordan, Lebanon (and probably also Palestine) have significant population growth ranging from 1.6% , 2.2% and 3.6% for Israel, Jordan and Palestine, respectively. Only Lebanon at 0.6% has a modest growth rate.  The percentage of public debt to GDP is very large range from 61%, 77% and 151% for Jordan, Israel and Lebanon.  A tightening supply of petroleum with rising prices will damage the economies of these countries.

About to join the ranks of importer for this region is Bahrain, which is hitting zero net exports now.  With 70% of government revenues dependent on production and refining it is not hard to see how this country will suffer economic hardship in the very near future.  With high standard of living at $40k/p), the population has recently spiked upwards (a 3%/yr growth rate), as has petroleum consumption.  This looks like a prime candidate for civil unrest as Bahrain transitions into an importer. 

Not far behind Bahrain are Syria and Yemen whose exports are rapidly declining.  If their downward trends in exports continue at the same pace it looks like they would hit net zero exports in the 2010s.  Both countries are highly dependent on declining oil resources for revenue.  Like Bahrain, the population of Syria and Yemen are rapidly escalating (2% and 2.7% growth rates, respectively).  Unlike Bahrain, however, the standard of living of Syria and Yemen are already much lower ($4.8/yr and $2.6/yr, respectively), and so the fall will not be as great.  However, with 45.2% of the population below the poverty line, there is really is no where to fall further to.  I put Syria and Yemen high on the list a candidate countries for civil unrest.

Neither Syria nor Yemen are large exporters (each about 0.12 mbd) so declining exports from these countries wouldn’t have much effect on the global supplies of oil.  The largest effect would be on the top export destinations: Germany, Italy, and France, and, Asia.  Perhaps, as suggested by the EIA, production in Syria will turn around production.  However in remains to be seen if any increase in production will actual outpace consumption which is also on an upward trend. 

Not too far behind Syria and Yemen, is Oman which has recently staved off a down trend in exports by introducing enhanced oil recovery techniques.  This might be doing little more than accelerating production from diminishing reserves of oil, which in turn, will cause an even steeper production declines a few years out.  For now, however its exports could stay flat, or increase slightly, if production can keep ahead of increasing domestic consumption.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia also is showing signs of declining exports.  Perhaps, like Oman, enhanced oil recovery techniques may allow Saudi Arabia to maintain its production at constant levels.  However, increasing population (1.5% growth rate) and increasing petroleum consumption trends will probably mean continued declines in exports.  As I discussed previously, even if production stayed constant, the increasing trend in domestic consumption would cause net exports to go to zero by about 2044.   For the time being however I would not expect petroleum exports to be a factor driving civil unrest.

Iran, Kuwait, and UAE all have flat exports. Apparently, UAE is maintaining its production with enhanced oil recovery techniques, and so I have the same concern as with Oman that this will very steep production declines eventually.  Population growth in UAE looks ridiculously high (3.6%/yr), and I expect that this will eventually cause consumption to spike upwards.    Population growth in Iran (1.3%/yr) and Kuwait (2.1%/yr) is not as steep as UAE, but I expect that is will continue to driven up the rate of domestic consumption and cut into exports.  Like Saudi Arabia, however, export revenues from petroleum exports should be stable and therefore would not be a factor driving civil unrest.

Iraq and Qatar are the only two counties with upwards trends in petroleum exports.  For both countries this is due to increased production rate out pacing increasing domestic consumption rates.  As I discussed previously, Iraq is thought to have the potential for a huge increase in production rates, but it remains to be seen if foreign investors and private companies with the know-how will invest in Iraq to make this a reality.  Qatar, on the other hand, may be turning to enhanced oil recovery techniques just to keep production rates increasing. 

---------------------

Next time:  survey of oil exports from North Africa