Crash_Watcher

Inter-Regional Trade Movements of Petroleum: Part 2 Global Trends in Exports and Imports

2012-03-10T14:41:00.005-08:00

With the house-keeping chores of Part 1 out of the way, let’s look at the global trends. In subsequent parts of this series, I will described the Petroleum Export and Import trends for each of the nine regions, which I have already analyzed and summed up in order to arrive at the world-wide trends described here. These data suggest that gross and inter-regional global imports and exports of

Inter-Regional Trade Movements of Petroleum Part 1: Introduction

2012-03-04T16:49:00.003-08:00

Global flows of petroleum are vital to supporting a global economy, as petroleum is the key transport fuel that allows the movement of people, raw material and finished goods between distant regions of the world. If the inter-regional flows of petroleum slow down, then so to must the global trade of goods. This is the start of a new series of posts to summarize my analysis of changing trends in

Peak Fossil Fuels and Limits to Growth in 34 Minutes

2012-02-15T11:14:00.000-08:00

Here is a wonderfully concise presentation, titled, "There's No Tomorrow" by Incubate Pictures; an animation video covering many of the topics I write about in this blog: peak oil, peak fossil fuels, peak food, and population growth. The information density in this 34 minute video is very high, so unless you have been looking at these issues for awhile, you may have to replay this a few times to

Texas's Electrical Power Predicament-Part 3

2012-02-11T15:32:00.000-08:00

Summary of Parts 1 and 2Texas’s population, GDP and electricity use are all in long-term growth trends, but these are about to run head-long into several EPA rules that will cause a reduction in electricity production derived from coal-fired plants. From the scenarios I ran, it seems likely that these rules will reduce electricity reserve margins to the point where rolling blackouts will become

Texas's Electrical Power Predicament-Part 2

2012-02-04T21:48:00.000-08:00

Texas Derives its Electrical Energy from a Diversity of SourcesBefore talking about EPA rules and the loss of the coal-fired power plants as an electricity source, I first will survey the longer term trend for Texas’s electricity sources, expressed in Figure 5 as a percentage relative to the totals such as shown in Figure 3 in Part 1. The data for Texas from 1990-2009 were taken from the EIA’s

Texas's Electrical Power Predicament-Part 1

2012-01-29T08:26:00.000-08:00

We have got 600 coal plants, the average age is 40 years old and we put 100 on the shelf. We are building a few gas plants, thanks to the abundant gas supply, but not enough to even keep up with the decommissioning of coal plants. We have got 104 nuclear plants, average age over 30 years old, design life 40 years, or, I should say permitted life 40. Ten years from now, ladies and gentleman,

Sam Penny's Was a Time When

2012-01-24T19:53:00.000-08:00

Grandpa Hardy persisted in telling me how back at the beginning of the twenty-first century some people like him tried to warn the world of the coming bad times with resource depletion and climate change and a corrupt financial system, but no one would listen. “They called us Doomers,” he said. “Some scientists talked about peak oil, where the demand for liquid energy would outstrip the supply

Indian food energy production and consumption: an export land model analysis

2012-01-15T20:17:00.000-08:00

Past series (starting here and here) have defined the units and terms used here, explain how I derive food energy contents for the various food items reported by the FAO, and, how these aggregated data can be used to estimate overall food energy production, consumption and export/import rates for individual countries, regions, or the entire world. Although India’s food production and

Thinking About Risk

2011-12-28T17:31:00.000-08:00

We talked a lot about climate change today. I predict than in three or four years, we won’t be talking about climate change any more. We will be talking about energy scarcity, or, food shortages, or, declining water supplies. Not because we have dealt with climate, but because its one of a large family of pressures which are going to mount until finally, physical growth stops. Dennis Meadows,

Trends in Indian Petroleum Production, Consumption and Imports

2011-12-19T17:41:00.000-08:00

In this post, I summarize my export land model analysis of India using the published petroleum production and consumption data from the BP Statistical Review for 2011. India's rate of petroleum consumption for the last thirty years has been exponentially increasing and out-striping Indian's domestic production which is in a flat-to-declining trend. In 2010, India imported 75% of its petroleum,

Chinese food energy production and consumption: an export land model analysis

2011-12-10T14:20:00.000-08:00

Past series (starting here and here) have defined units and the terms used here, and, explained how I derive food energy contents for the various food items reported by the FAO, and how these aggregated data can be used to estimate overall food energy production, consumption and export/import rates for individual countries, regions, or the entire world. This analysis shows that China has long

Hurray we are saved, the USA is a net fuel exporter

2011-11-30T19:36:00.000-08:00

It’s time for a little break from the drudgery of spreadsheets. I can't resist on commenting on this misleading story in the WSJ, titled: "U.S. NEARS MILESTONE: NET FUEL EXPORTER" The article is behind a pay wall, so I only have what was quoted in today's (11/30/2011) edition of ASPO-USA's Peak Oil News, but that was enough: U.S. exports of gasoline, diesel and other oil-based fuels are soaring,

Trends in Chinese Petroleum Production, Consumption and Imports

2011-11-23T20:17:00.000-08:00

In this post, I summarize my export land model analysis of China using the published petroleum production and consumption data from the BP Statistical Review for 2011. China’s enormous economic expansion over the past 15 to 20 years has been fueled by a large increase in petroleum consumption, making China increasingly dependent upon the global export pool. This trend is likely to increase in

USA Export land model analysis for food energy production and consumption: Part 3

2011-11-16T16:12:00.001-08:00

Show me the few that stayed. Farming is corporate now; there is still the myth of the family farm. Yea, you still have some fractional percent that are still out there, but they are working at Wal-Mart to pay for it, so that they can grow 100 acres of corn. There is nobody that stays on the land. There is kind of a resurgence in it, but it's San Francisco hippies that are going to grow some

USA Export land model analysis for food energy production and consumption: Part 2

2011-11-13T15:00:00.000-08:00

Net Production, Consumption and Net Exports Figure 9 shows the USA’s annual food energy net production and consumption (i.e., domestic supply) and the difference—net positive exports throughout 1961 to 2007. As discussed in Part 1, although there are high year-to-year variations, production, on average, has increased at about double the rate (2%/yr) as population growth (1%). Consumption has

USA Export land model analysis for food energy production and consumption: Part 1

2011-10-30T06:43:00.000-07:00

I am not going to re-hash old ground explaining how I derived the food energy contents for the various food items reported by the FAO and how these aggregated data can be used to estimate overall food energy production, consumption and export/import rates for individual countries regions or the world. This has all been covered before in the most recent four blog entries. I am also not going to

Global food production and consumption trends—an energy-based approach

2011-10-07T17:19:00.000-07:00

I have spent last month’s posts laying the ground-work for what I plan to be a series of posts examining food production, consumption and import-export trends. This post kicks-off the series by considering world-wide food production and consumption trends from 1961 to 2007. I am interesting in seeing whether or not there are signs of peaking food production and of countries shifting from being

Export land model analysis of food production and consumption—deriving food energy conversion factors

2011-09-29T16:02:00.000-07:00

As I indicated in the last post, food energy conversion factors are vital for converting quantities of different foods into a common energy unit. It is this conversion that will allow me to compare the food production, consumption, and import/export rates for different years within the same country as well as between countries or regions. As also indicated in my last post the problem, for me,

Export land model analysis of food production and consumption—Concepts, Database and Definitions.

2011-09-13T19:22:00.000-07:00

The IdeaI got the idea that I could quantify the total production and consumption food energies for different countries by putting together two different pieces of information: The first piece came from my research I did for the post: The relationship between hunger and petroleum consumption-Part 4. That is when I became aware of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and its enormous

My First Year Anniversary Celebratory Blogroll

2011-09-07T20:00:00.000-07:00

September 8 is this blog's first year anniversary, so I thought that I would celebrate by finally putting up my blogroll. I have tried to feature a number of blogs that I frequent, but perhaps don't get as much attention as they deserve. Unless otherwise noted, these blog/websites are non-commercial with freely available material. I can’t say that I endorse or agree with every (or any) of

Export land model analysis of food production and consumption—Background

2011-09-03T16:19:00.000-07:00

Readers of this blog will know that I have mostly focused on peak oil and export land modeling, as well as the relationship between petroleum production/consumption and food production, and the implications this has on the prospects for global starvation and population decline. For the next several posts, I plan to shift my interests directly towards examining the food supply. Petroleum’s key

Dissonant Views of Peak Oil and Climate Change—Can You Have Both?

2011-08-27T07:50:00.000-07:00

Before I let this, and my previous post on this topic, drift down the gutter into the sewer of unwelcome posts, I am compelled to present a bit more background and to make a few predictions. There are many notable men of words1 in the transition and peak oil movements that have publically recognized the dissonant views posed by a peak oil/peak fossil fuel scenario and an anthropogenic (man-made)

The heat wave in Texas continues, as does the threat of rolling blackouts

2011-08-25T07:43:00.000-07:00

The heat wave in Texas continues, as does the threat of rolling blackouts: Texans are being asked to conserve electricity as the The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) saw its operating reserves dropped below 2,300 megawatts due to the extreme heat. “We are asking Texas residents and businesses to reduce their electricity use until 7 p.m. today,” ERCOT vice president Kent Saathoff

Peak Oil and Climate Change: time for some remodeling?

2011-08-14T20:54:00.000-07:00

I have been slowly working my way through the 9th annual Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO) conference, which has graciously provided most of the conference presentations in video format online for free, here. There are many good talks to watch, a few standout presentations that I have seen so far being: Paul Stevens, Darren Bezdek, Jeff Rubin, Erik Townsend, and David Murphy.

Revisiting Rolling Blackouts in Texas

2011-08-06T15:40:00.000-07:00

It was almost six months ago to the day that statewide rolling blackouts were imposed in Texas after frigid weather shut down dozens of generators. Some may recall that on February 4, 2011, ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas), instituted the rolling black outs when the cold weather knocked over 50 electricity generating units, taking out about 7,000 megawatts of power generators, or

The relationship between hunger and petroleum consumption-Part 5

2011-07-30T20:25:00.000-07:00

Here, I summarize parts 1-4 and put my results into the context of the broader ideas of peak oil, food production and population decline. A number of readers may think that it is obvious, or common knowledge, that food production and fossil fuel consumption are directly linked, and therefore, the higher the level of petroleum consumption in the world, in a region, or in a country, the greater

The relationship between hunger and petroleum consumption-Part 4

2011-07-22T16:24:00.000-07:00

Parts 1 and 2 looked at the relationship between the global hunger index (GHI) and per capita petroleum consumption, and, part 3 looked at the relationship between per capita petroleum consumption and BMI. Here in Part 4, I examine the relationship between the food supply energy for individual countries, as estimated Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, and per capita

The relationship between hunger and petroleum consumption-Part 3

2011-07-09T17:19:00.000-07:00

Parts 1 and 2 looked at the relationship between the global hunger index (GHI) and per capita petroleum consumption. Here in part 3, I describe the relationship between per capita petroleum consumption and another potential indicator of hunger—body mass index (BMI). Most people are familiar with BMI, not as a measure of hunger, but rather quite the opposite—an over-abundance of food leading to

The relationship between hunger and petroleum consumption-Part 2

2011-06-28T16:07:00.000-07:00

In part 1, I presented my hypothesis that countries with a high hunger index level will have a low per capita petroleum consumption rate, and, countries with a low hunger index level will have a high per capita petroleum consumption rate. The underlying idea is that below a certain critical level of oil consumption, the modern petroleum-driven food production system is unable to keep the

The relationship between hunger and petroleum consumption-Part 1

2011-06-18T16:44:00.000-07:00

In part 9 of my previous series, I estimated that of the 25 barrels of petroleum consumed per person per year (b/py) in the USA, at most 1.7 b/py was needed to support the present food production system. In part 10, based on the analysis of population growth and per capita petroleum consumption trends for some selected countries and regions, I down-graded my estimate of the per capita petroleum

There will be no Epilogue

2011-06-10T19:28:00.000-07:00

Many of my past 50 posts have made predictions based on scenarios derived from the analysis of data reported by the USA's Energy Information Agency (EIA), the US census bureau, BP's Statistical Energy Review and other free public sources. A few recent news releases suggests that these public sources are going away: EIA must act quickly to realize the necessary spending reductions during the

Part 10: Peak oil exports, peak oil and implications for population change.

2011-06-04T19:31:00.000-07:00

This is the tenth and final part of this series where I summarize my analysis of regional petroleum production and consumption trends, and, the implications this has for population growth. I predict that population growth will continue or remain stable, with no global die-off for quite some time, although some regions, like Africa, may suffer a die-off soon. Summary of Parts 1-9 I launched

Part 9: Estimating the critical levels of petroleum consumption necessary to sustain the modern food production system

2011-05-24T18:12:00.000-07:00

Recap In Part 7, I examined the relationship between increasing global population and global petroleum production rates and found that they have a very strong linear correlation. Based on this correlation, and suggestions that the Green Revolution in food production and delivery was made possible by petroleum consumption, I hypothesized that the increase in petroleum production was the cause of

Part 8: Searching for evidence of population decline during periods of declining petroleum consumption

2011-05-15T19:15:00.000-07:00

Well, it is good to be back—blogger lives! In part 7, I examined the correlation between global population and petroleum consumption and presented two possible scenarios for population change in light of declining petroleum production. The first scenario (Figure 25, Part 7) posited a continued increase in population even in the face of the predicted decline in petroleum production decline,

Part 7 The relationship between global population and global petroleum production

2011-05-03T19:47:00.000-07:00

Based on my analysis of regional petroleum production trends presented in part 2 and part 3, I was able to make some predictions in part 6 about peak oil and total recoverable oil (Q∞), for the seven regions studied: (Middle East, ME; Former Soviet Union, FS; Africa, AF; South America, SA; Asia-Pacific, AP; Europe, EU and North America, NA), as well as global (WO) production, peak oil and Q∞.

Part 6 Predicting regional and global peak oil and total recoverable oil.

2011-04-24T17:50:00.000-07:00

"Globally, we find more (oil) all the time, but we haven't actually found as much as we've used in a given year since 1985," said Maj. John Sheahan, another member of the research team. "From the long (term) view, it's guaranteed that something else will take over (as an energy source), we just don't know what or when. Nobody has yet come up with the solution (so) that we can (continue to) do

Part 5 Predicting regional petroleum consumption in a post-export world

2011-04-18T18:40:00.000-07:00

In part 2 and part 3 of this series, I presented my regional analysis of global production and consumption trends for the Middle East (ME), Former Soviet Union (FS), Africa (AF), South America (SA), Asia-Pacific (AP), Europe (EU) and North America (NA). In part 4, I put the regional analysis together to show that net-exports from the four exporting regions (ME, FS. AF, SA), will end in about

Estimating the End of Global Petroleum Exports Part 4 future global net export trends

2011-04-16T19:51:00.000-07:00

The United States of America cannot afford to bet our long-term prosperity and security on a resource that will eventually run out. Not anymore. Not when the cost to our economy, our country, and our planet is so high. Not when your generation needs us to get this right. It is time to do what we can to secure our energy future. So today, I'm setting a new goal: one that is reasonable,

Estimating the End of Global Petroleum Exports Part 3 Regional production, consumption and export trends for EU, FS, SA and NA

2011-04-15T19:38:00.000-07:00

Here, in part three, I will finish my summary of analyzing the production, consumption and export trends for the remaining four regions in this study: Europe (EU), Former Soviet Union (FS), South America (SA) and North America (NA). Europe Figure 4 presents the reported production, consumption and net exports rates and the corresponding NLLS best curves for EU. Major producers in 2009 were

Estimating the End of Global Petroleum Exports Part 2 Regional production, consumption and export trends for ME, AF and AP

2011-04-14T19:41:00.000-07:00

Here, in part two, I summarize the production, consumption and export trends for three of the seven regions I studied: Middle East (ME), Africa (AF) and Asia-Pacifica (AP). Middle East Figure 1 presents the reported production, consumption and net exports rates (blue, red and green open circles respectively) and the corresponding NLLS best curves (solid lines with the same respective colors ).

Estimating the End of Global Petroleum Exports Part 1 Introduction and Method

2011-04-10T18:09:00.000-07:00

I and others have made the fairly safe, and perhaps too obvious, prediction that the effects of an end in global petroleum exports will likely happen much more sooner, and, have a much greater impact than peak oil itself. The economies of all developed countries in the world are highly dependent on the readily available “liquid energy” that petroleum provides. Most developed countries import

Bahrain's central location and geopolitical importance to the US and KSA

2011-03-15T09:48:00.000-07:00

The tsunami in Japan has not only swept away many cities and town in Japan, it has also swept away the main-stream media's coverage of continuing civil unrest in some of the MENA countries. What perfect cover for the Kingdoms of Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, and UAE, to take strong action against the protesters in Bahrain: Troops from Saudi Arabia and police officers from the United Arab Emirates

Relating Per Capita GDP to Petroleum Consumption and Exports for the MENA Countries

2011-03-13T10:25:00.000-07:00

In a previous article, I reproduced a plot relating per capita oil consumption to per capita GDP for selected countries, from a presentation, Energy and the Economy, by Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist for Deutsche Bank. Sieminski’s plot showed a linear correlation between per capita oil consumption and per capita GDP for a selection of countries from Europe, Asia, North and South America

Survey of Oil Exports from North Africa

2011-03-10T20:58:00.000-08:00

Twitter is ablaze with talk of the protests planned by some Saudi citizens next Friday. Saudi troops are already being deployed around the Kingdom. Before there was any sense that contagion might spread even to Saudi Arabia, some analysts were warning of $220 oil ….”only” if Libyan and Algerian oil production was affected. Now one analyst says this of the prospect of Saudi disruption: “this is

Survey of Oil Exports from the Middle East

2011-02-27T17:09:00.000-08:00

With all of the current strife in the Middle East and North Africa hitting the main stream media, I thought it would be interesting to examine the petroleum export trends for the countries in these regions. My hypothesis is that as the exports for oil exporting countries go into decline, this stress on the economy will increase the likelihood of civil unrest and political upheaval. Especially

Investing in view of the Export Land Model

2011-02-20T20:55:00.000-08:00

A few weeks ago, Erik Townsend, a previous frequent contributor at Chris Martensen’s and at Jim Puplava's websites, released a pair of videos titled, Peak Oil Explained for Investors (video 1 of 2) and Peak Oil Speculative Trading Strategies (video 2 of 2). Part 1 gives a nice introduction to the concept of peak oil, common misconceptions, and Erik’s perspective on why a number alternative means

An Export Land Model Analysis for the USA-Part 4

2011-02-13T14:22:00.000-08:00

In the fourth and final part of the series, I summarize the results of my analysis from the first three parts, explore the economic implications, consider the likely government response leading up to net zero exports and give you some advice on individual preparation. I started this analysis because I wanted to examine how Brown and Faucher's seminal concept of the export land model pertains to

An Export Land Model Analysis for the USA-Part 3

2011-02-06T15:00:00.000-08:00

In Part 1, I presented my best estimate Export Land Model analysis for the USA, based on my analysis of trends in petroleum production and consumption for the USA and its top ten import sources (“the top ten”). In Part 2, I examined pessimistic and optimistic Export Land Model scenarios based on alternative interpretations about the trends in petroleum production and consumption for the USA and

An Export Land Model Analysis for the USA-Part2

2011-01-29T17:07:00.000-08:00

...it becomes difficult to imagine that global oil production could gently waft down from lofty heights in a graceful smooth and continuous curve spanning decades. Rather, the picture that presents itself is one of stepwise declines happening in more and more places, and eventually encompassing the entire planet. Dmitry Orlov, Peak Oil is History In Part 1, I presented my best estimate Export

An Export Land Model Analysis for the USA-Part 1

2011-01-27T16:35:00.000-08:00

As Matt Simmons pointed out several years ago, the critical problem with post-peak exporting regions is that we would have two exponential functions (declining production and generally increasing consumption) working against net exports. From the point of view of importers, it is quite likely that we are facing a crash in oil supplies. In my opinion, what I have described as the “Iron Triangle”

Trends in Brazilian Petroleum Production and Consumption

2011-01-22T10:50:00.000-08:00

As noted in Where in the world does the USA import its oil from?, based on the data reported in U.S. Total Crude Oil and Products Imports (“Total Imports”), I estimated that Brazil was the tenth largest petroleum exporter to the USA in 2009. The historic data in “Total Imports” suggest that Brazil’s importance as a petroleum supplier to the USA has always been relatively modest: there were

Trends in Iraqi Petroleum Production and Consumption

2011-01-09T18:01:00.000-08:00

Jonica Newby: So, peak oil, are we there yet? Kjell Aleklett: Yes, we are there now, and production peaked really in 2008, and the only way to get it up to those numbers again is that the production in Iraq will start very soon because that is the last part with the big oil fields they put in production. So that's the situation now, so that means peak oil was 2008. Peak oil - the slow slide down

Trends in Angolan Petroleum Production and Consumption

2010-12-26T08:33:00.000-08:00

As I noted in Where in the world does the USA import its oil from?, based on data from U.S. Total Crude Oil and Products Imports (“Total Imports”) I estimated that Angola is number eight of the largest petroleum providers to the USA in 2009. Like Algeria, Angola has supplied substantial amounts of oil to the USA for at least the last 35 years. According to data in “Total Imports,” at least

Trends in Algerian Petroleum Production and Consumption

2010-12-23T15:06:00.000-08:00

As I discussed in Where in the world does the USA import its oil from? Algeria is number seven on the list of largest petroleum provider to the USA in 2009 based on data from U.S. Total Crude Oil and Products Imports (“Total Imports”). Algeria has long been an important supplier to the USA. For instance, according to data in “Total Imports,” at least since 1975, Algeria has been usually among

Where in the world does the USA import its oil from?

2010-12-18T07:00:00.000-08:00

This article is a follow-up to address a question I posed at the end of the article, Trends in Nigerian Petroleum Production and Consumption. After considering the USA’s petroleum imports from its top five source countries, I pondered the question: where did the additional ~1-2 bbs/yr petroleum come from for the years 2004-2009 to account for the discrepancy between the USA’s consumption and the

Trends in Russian Petroleum Production and Consumption

2010-12-11T12:18:00.000-08:00

Russia is number six on the list of largest petroleum provider to the USA according to Annual Energy Review for 2009 (see e.g., Fig. 5.4 and Table 5.4). According to the EIA’s country analysis brief for Russia, most of Russia’s oil presently comes from Western Siberia, although untapped oil from Eastern Siberia, the Caspian Sea, and Sahkalin (in the Far East ) may play a larger role in the

Trends in Nigerian Petroleum Production and Consumption

2010-12-04T12:16:00.000-08:00

Nigerian is number five on the list of largest petroleum providers to the USA according to Annual Energy Review for 2009 (see e.g., Fig. 5.4 and Table 5.4). According to the EIA’s country analysis brief for Nigeria, oil accounts for over 95 percent of export earnings and about 65 percent of government revenues. Overview of Nigerian petroleum production, consumption and exportsThe majority of the

Trends in Saudi Arabia Petroleum Production and Consumption

2010-11-30T08:40:00.000-08:00

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is the number four largest petroleum provider to the USA, the world’s largest producer and exporter of total petroleum liquids, and the world’s second largest crude oil producer behind Russia, according to Annual Energy Review for 2009 (see e.g., Fig. 5.4 and Table 5.4). According to the EIA’s country analysis brief for Saudi Arabia, oil accounts for 90% of total

Canada—Petroleum Superpower or Super-slave?

2010-11-28T13:02:00.000-08:00

Our economy is anchored in the North American marketplace by our Free Trade Agreement with the United States and Mexico. It gives Canadians – and investors in the Canadian economy – secure access to the huge U.S. market. But again, our trading relationships are not quite as one dimensional as people tend to think. Our links to the Asia-Pacific region are growing, and we’re upgrading our West

Trends in Venezuelan Petroleum Production and Consumption

2010-11-25T15:28:00.000-08:00

Venezuela is the third largest petroleum provider to the USA, according to EIA's Annual Energy Review for 2009 (see e.g., Fig. 5.4 and Table 5.4). According to the EIA’s country analysis brief for Venezuela, oil accounts for more than three-quarters of total Venezuelan export revenues, about half of total government revenues, and around one-third of total gross domestic product (GDP). Overview

Trends in Mexican Petroleum Production and Consumption

2010-11-20T07:35:00.000-08:00

Mexico has recently been another top petroleum provider to the USA—number two according to Annual Energy Review for 2009 (see e.g., Fig. 5.4 and Table 5.4). According to the EIA’s country analysis brief for Mexico, the oil sector still generates over 15 percent of the country’s export earnings, and, an incredible 40 percent of total government revenues rely on earnings from the oil industry.

Trends in Canadian Petroleum Production and Consumption

2010-11-07T10:08:00.000-08:00

Canada has consistently been the top petroleum provider to the USA. According to the EIA’s country analysis brief for Canada over 99 percent of the oil that Canada exports, it exports to the USA mainly through an extensive pipeline system interconnecting the two countries. Non-linear least squares (NLLS) analysis of total productionFigure 1 shows total petroleum production for 1965-2009 as

Trends in USA Petroleum Production and Consumption

2010-10-30T18:56:00.000-07:00

IntroductionAs I hope was made clear from my previous series, “Refining the Peak Oil Rosy Scenario,” the logistic equation developed by Hubbert for the analysis of oil production data (henceforth “Hubbert’s Equation”), has a number of inherent limitations, especially when it comes to modeling the decline-side of the production curve. In brief, Hubbert’s Equation inherently assumes that the

Refining the Peak Oil Rosy Scenario Part 7: An improved logistic model

2010-10-18T16:27:00.000-07:00

Inherent problems with the logistic equation During the course of modeling my simulated data sets (especially the data set which assumed a 2%/yr decline in “a” after the peak in production) I realized that although the NLLS model made a reasonable estimate of the average “a” for the 5-year time spans considered (see part 4; Results for non-linear least squares analysis of simulated data) the

Refining the Peak Oil Rosy Scenario Part 6: Partial Redemption of Hubbert’s logistic linear equation

2010-10-05T15:10:00.000-07:00

The problem with applying the logistic linear equation to partial data sets Even though I had abandoned it for the purposes of estimating changes in “a” on the decline side of the production curve, Hubbert’s logistic linear equation was quite good at predicting Q∞ and "a" on the growth side of the curve. One general problem with using the linear equation, however, is that I don’t always have a

Refining the Peak Oil Rosy Scenario Part 5: Preliminary nonlinear logistic modeling of the USA oil production curve

2010-10-05T15:02:00.000-07:00

Historic Source DataMy primary source data for yearly oil production and consumption will be BP's "Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 ("Statistical Review") which provides historical yearly production and consumption data for most countries from 1965 and on in an EXCEL work file. One problem here for the USA is that 1965 is pretty "late" in the production curve; recall that Hubbert

Refining the Peak Oil Rosy Scenario Part 4: Testing Hubbert’s linear and nonlinear logistic models

2010-10-04T08:06:00.000-07:00

I've always seen modeling as a stepping stone—Tyra Banks A lot of modeling is how much crap you can take—Lauren Hutton Logistic models Before delving into simulated data generation and modeling, I want to make a few comments about the logistic model that I will be considering. Hubbert briefly noted in "Techniques" (p. 49) that the logistic equation was originally derived in the 1800 's to model

Refining the Peak Oil Rosy Scenario Part 3: Hubbert's revised model

2010-09-30T15:06:00.000-07:00

Techniques of prediction of future events range from the completely irrational to the semi-rational to the highly rational. Rational techniques of predicting the behavior of a system require first an understanding of its mechanism and of the constraints under which it operates and evolves. This permits the development of appropriate theoretical relations, which, when applied to the data of the

Refining the Peak Oil Rosy Scenario Part 2: A trip down memory lane with MK Hubbert

2010-09-26T11:03:00.000-07:00

A young Marion King Hubbert attending a technocracy conference cir. 1933—from http://www.technocracy.ca/tiki-list_file_gallery.php?galleryId=10&offset=25 (image 17 of 18). Hubbert, was THE pioneering giant that brought attention to peak oil—peak fossil fuels really. Hubbert recognized that fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) are non-renewing resources, at least on the time scale of human

Refining the Peak Oil Rosy Scenario Part 1 Review and Introduction

2010-09-23T15:16:00.000-07:00

Note: for some background information about peak oil, I put up a