tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5615802111925975217.post6382158784407821948..comments2023-11-02T06:23:54.891-07:00Comments on Crash_Watcher: Trends in USA Petroleum Production and ConsumptionCrash_Watcherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01985815560035214946noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5615802111925975217.post-33752388299658145972010-11-02T07:58:00.846-07:002010-11-02T07:58:00.846-07:00"I believe you are never going to get a good ..."I believe you are never going to get a good fit to the world production data unless you can factor in how production behaves in response to non-exponential demand.<br /><br />I think this would require replacing the original term EXP(-at) [Part 3, eq. 38] with a 'punctuated' exponential series, and then proceeding with the modifications you have made."<br /><br />Indeed, that Crash_Watcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01985815560035214946noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5615802111925975217.post-33351268934105532922010-11-01T19:02:01.412-07:002010-11-01T19:02:01.412-07:00... continuing
Turning to Fig. 8 in this article,...... continuing<br /><br />Turning to Fig. 8 in this article, the Alaskan supply does not fit a logistic curve in the early stages because the major pipeline work could not proceed until there were sufficient discoveries to justify it financially. Similarly, as production falls, there will come a point when the supply moves so slowly through the pipe that it cools and its viscosity increases Dave Kimblehttp://www.peakoil.org.aunoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5615802111925975217.post-36105450579837061512010-11-01T19:00:54.904-07:002010-11-01T19:00:54.904-07:00The logistic equation (modified or otherwise) is b...The logistic equation (modified or otherwise) is based on an exponential growth in demand, which gets increasingly crushed by increasing difficulty in increasing supply from a diminishing resource.<br /><br />However following the first and second oil shocks, when supply was artificially constrained causing big price rises, demand fell. Demand has also fallen (or not increased so fast) during Dave Kimblehttp://www.peakoil.org.aunoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5615802111925975217.post-22552495482954435112010-11-01T18:58:48.996-07:002010-11-01T18:58:48.996-07:00The logistic equation (modified or otherwise) is b...The logistic equation (modified or otherwise) is based on an exponential growth in demand, which gets increasingly crushed by increasing difficulty in increasing supply from a diminishing resource.<br /><br />However following the first and second oil shocks, when supply was artificially constrained causing big price rises, demand fell. Demand has also fallen (or not increased so fast) during Dave Kimblehttp://www.peakoil.org.aunoreply@blogger.com